Useless Arithmetic

The notion of Useless Arthmetic is appealing. The models must make assumptions. As we move up the scale, as the systems become more complex, it is likely the assumptions will begin to overcome the outcome. Last straws and such. Theory has its limits in the real world. Thes notion is bopped about in the new book Useless Arithmetic.

The notion of Useless Arthmetic is appealing. But it does arrive during an important effort to move global warming from the debating society stage to the lets do something about it society stage.

Note the authors do see a problem with their assertion: One is climate change, in which, they say, experts’ justifiable caution about model uncertainties can encourage them to ignore accumulating evidence, and so on. The shoe is usually on the other foot ["Remember when the facts dont fit the model, the facts got to change."]

As I looked closer at the blog trail of useless math tears  it appeared authors were not entirely opposed to modeling, but were concerned that it is being overused and under-understood. The publisher has up some comments too. These are pr comments. Abuzz. “The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise … ” Oh those seductive quantitative models, they broke up many a happy home.

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The Problems in Modeling Nature, With Its Unruly Natural Tendencies – New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/20/science/20book.html

Useless Arithmetic; Why Environmental Scientists Can’t Predict the Future
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/catalog/data/023113/0231132123.HTM

Places and Spaces: Useless Arithmetic 
http://epd372.blogspot.com/2007/02/useless-arithmetic.html

USELESS ARITHMETIC – Daily Policy Digest | NCPA 
http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?page=article&Article_ID=14220
Under the Covers: Useless arithmetic? – Gristmill: The environmental news blog
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/2/21/124321/594

The American Scientist has about the best treatment here, but that article is only open to subscribers. Maybe I can summ it later… Meanwhile, the Discovery Channels Discovery of ‘Jesus’ Grave’ has pushed this discussion to the background. I remember the RadioWeblog I had.. only story I ever had to Correct was the Jesus’ coffin discovery around Christmas 2003.

NASA Goes Deep

This piece reads like a speech. I guess it’s premise is that the Space Shuttle was a bust. That we should have spent all this time on the moon instead. And that there is a point to doing that now..including proving countries can cooperate, that we can focus on something for decades and meet challenges. I am not against this idea .. I justdon’t think this is the way to sell it. It ran on the 45th anniversary of John Glenn’s flight.

read more | digg story

White Dwarf in Helix nebula

Astronomers have long studied the white dwarf at the center of the Helix nebula, but nobody had detected any dust close to it until now. 

The dusty dead star appears as a dot in the middle of the nebula, like a red pupil in a green monster’s eye.
Material in the newfound disk surrounding the white dwarf might be falling onto the star and triggering the X-ray outbursts.

http://www.physorg.com/news90520764.html

Iranian IEDs in Iraq?

The assertion of an Iranian role in supplying the device to Shiite militias reflects broad agreement among American intelligence agencies. Yet..Michael Gordon is a very able military reporter ..but.. did the New York Times not go down this path before with Judith Miller? Are the sources calling the tune? I’d like to ask Gordon. A concern.

Read the Times story.

Also see.

Cassini Probe Images Mammoth Cloud Engulfing Titan’s North Pole

A giant cloud half the size of the United States has been imaged on Saturn’s moon Titan by the Cassini spacecraft.the cloud has come into view as winter turns to spring.We knew this cloud had to be there but were amazed at its size and structure. The Cassini radar team reported last year that the lakes at the north pole are partly filled, and some appear to have evaporated, likely contributing to this cloud formation, which is made up of ethane, methane and other organics.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/media/cassini-20070201.html

House approves budget – gashes NASA

Well it is hard to make ends meet in the best of times [when exactly were those by the way?] but ahh, we got a war again, and going to space doesnt seem to be setting the world on fire, and the vague moon trip is right in the path of the budget semi.

read more | digg story

Space Junk Supercollision Fast Approaching, Could Last Centuries

NYT article and graphics show how Chinese antisatellite test sped the onset of a chain reaction of space junk collisions feared to cost billions, last for centuries, and impede space exploration. This seems to be an innate human trait..to leave debris.

read more | digg story

Florida nixes touch-screen voting.

It’s Florida. New governor. And what does he do first? Get rid of those touchscreens that leave no trace.

This shows the limits of software I’d advise, at least software with no paper trail.

Gov. Charlie Crist announced plans to abandon the touch-screen voting machines that many of Florida’s counties installed after the disputed 2000 presidential election. The state will instead adopt a system of casting paper ballots counted by scanning machines in time for the 2008 presidential election.

“Florida is like a synonym for election problems; it’s the Bermuda Triangle of elections,” said Warren Stewart, policy director of VoteTrust USA, a nonprofit group that says optical scanners are more reliable than touch screens. “For Florida to be clearly contemplating moving away from touch screens to the greatest extent possible is truly significant.”

Elections can be rigged in a number of ways. But the Diebold crew and the touch-screen push brought us into an era most nefarious. In some places computers are not better ipso facto. Sometimes you need machines with feedback. And residue.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/02/us/02voting.html

read more | digg story

181 lunar objectives, plus

Ever since the end of the Apollo program, “folks around the world have been thinking about returning to the moon, and what they would like to do there,” says Jeff Volosin, strategy development lead for NASA’s Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. Now, NASA is going back; the agency plans to send astronauts to the Moon no later than 2020. “So we consulted more than 1,000 people from businesses, academia and 13 international space agencies to come up with a master list of 181 potential lunar objectives.”

http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_50551.shtml
Last year on the Moon Mission

Refinement and expansion of these two themes and four others (science, economic expansion, international cooperation, and public engagement) were pursued in 2006. This post outlines where we are relative to the moon.

In conjunction with the unveiling of six themes, NASA released a list  of 181 specific lunar activities, classified and rated by discipline and theme.

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/791/1

Harsh witness Moon

“Earth and the Moon occupy the same position in the solar system,” says a researcher. “While Earth is a very dynamic planet, the Moon is a fossil world with no atmosphere. So the Moon preserves a record of the early history of the solar system that is no longer readable on Earth.”

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/26jan_harshwitness.htm